nicholas200802150530.jpg

seperti diprediksi sebelumnya, aktivitas siklon tropis Nicholas terus menguat hingga mencapai kategori 2 (versi biro meteorologi australia) dengan kecepatan angin rata-rata 50 knot (95 Km / jam).

dengan menguatnya aktivitas siklon tropis Nicholas, penutupan awan di pulau jawa hingga nusa tenggara akan terus terjadi dan kemungkinan besar juga diikuti dengan turunnya hujan dengan intensitas sedang. berdasarkan laporan biro meteorologi australia, kondisi tersebut diprediksi terus bertahan hingga akhir pekan, seiring dengan pergerakan siklon ke selatan menjauh dari samudera indonesia.

IDW27400

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL SUMMARY: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION

Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE

at: 0655 UTC 15/02/2008

Name: Nicholas

Data At: 0600 UTC

Latitude: 15.8S

Longitude: 119.5E

Location Accuracy: within 30 nm (55 km)

Movement Towards: west (270 deg)

Speed of Movement:2 knots (5 km/h)

Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 50 knots (95 km/h)

Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 70 knots (130 km/h)

Central Pressure: 974 hPa

Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)

Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)

Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 100 nm (185 km)

Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 100 nm (185 km)

Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm (55 km)

Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 30 nm (55 km)

Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 30 nm (55 km)

Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm (55 km)

Radius of 64-knot winds:

Radius of Maximum Winds:  20 nm (37 km)

Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.5/3.5/D0.5/24HRS

Pressure of outermost isobar: 998 hPa

Radius of outermost closed isobar: 90 nm (165 km)

Storm Depth: Deep

FORECAST DATA

Date/Time   : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure

(UTC)       : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa

+12: 15/1800: 16.2S 118.9E:     050 (095):  055  (100):  966

+24: 16/0600: 16.9S 118.5E:     075 (140):  060  (110):  964

+36: 16/1800: 17.8S 118.4E:     100 (185):  075  (140):  952

+48: 17/0600: 19.0S 118.0E:     120 (220):  085  (155):  940

REMARKS:

Although continuing to be influenced by moderate vertical shear Nicholas is showing increasing

curvature in the deep convection in both VIS and microwave imagery. A wrap of approximately

0.8 was obtained on recent VIS images to arrive at DT3.5. MET is 4.0, PAT 3.5 and hence FT is

 3.5.
Current westwards motion is likely to be replaced with a more southerly track as the anticyclone

 to the southwest weakens over the weekend, in accordance with consensus of model guidance.

 Once the system moves further south the shear should decrease and the intensification rate

may increase.
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