index osilasi selatan di awal-awal tahun ini menunjukan tren yg menyimpang tidak jauh dari nilai normalnya, dengan demikian dapat diprediksi bahwa penyimpangan iklim di Indonesia akibat elnino  kecil kemungkinannya untuk terjadi tahun ini.

rilis resmi mengenai SOI oleh BOM Australia dapat dilihat disini.

berita singkatnya sebagai berikut:

  • SSTs continue to warm across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. SST values are now close to normal across most of the central equatorial Pacific, but above normal in the east.
  • The equatorial sub-surface has also continued to warm, removing most of the areas of previously cool water.
  • The SOI rebounded in April after falling in March, but the most recent values indicate a renewed falling trend. The latest 30-day SOI value for 5 May is +7. The monthly value for April was +9.
  • Trade winds have weakened further. Anomalous westerly flow currently covers much of the equatorial Pacific.
  • Cloudiness near the date-line increased, but remains below average.
  • The majority of dynamic computer models predict neutral conditions to continue until at least mid-winter.

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