el nino prediction dari NOAA

Expected El Niño impacts during October-December 2009 include enhanced precipitation over the central tropical Pacific Ocean and a continuation of drier-than-average conditions over Indonesia. For the contiguous United States, potential impacts include above-average precipitation along the Gulf Coast, from Texas to Florida, and below-average precipitation for the Pacific Northwest. Other potential impacts include a continued suppression of Atlantic hurricane activity, along with above-average temperatures and below-average snowfall for the Northern Plains.


In Brief

  • The tropical Pacific Ocean sea surface remains warmer than average and exceeds El Niño thresholds in central to eastern regions.
  • The sub-surface water of the tropical Pacific remains slightly warmer than the long-term mean across most of the central to eastern Pacific; there has been some warming in the central Pacific recently which is expected to shift eastwards over the coming weeks.
  • The latest 30-day SOI value is −1, while the monthly value for September was +4. The SOI is currently neutral.
  • The Trade winds have weakened across the central to eastern Pacific in the last two weeks, with weaker than normal trade flow now evident along most of the equatorial Pacific.
  • Cloudiness near the date line remains greater than the long-term mean. However, when compared with other El Niño events, the current trend in cloudiness is weak.
  • Most leading international climate models surveyed by the Bureau predict the tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SST) to remain above El Niño thresholds until at least the end of the southern summer.

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