Peringatan: El-Nino Berpeluang besar terjadi tahun 2014


Beberapa hari lalu saya tertarik dengan satu uraian di blog tentang  proses inisiasi El-Nino di tahun 2014 ini. uraian tersebut ditulis oleh Bob Tisdale dan menyebutkan bahwa dari analisa data sea sub-surface temperatuer (0-300 m dibawah permukaan laut) memiliki kemiripan dengan proses inisiasi El-Nino tahun 1997/1998 sehingga dia berkesimpulan bahwa El Nino akan terjadi pada tahun 2014.

hari ini saya membuka website Boreau of Meteorology Australia laman ENSO Wrap-Up, dan ternyata analisa dari tim BoM menyimpulkan bahwa El-Nino berpeluang 70% terjadi pada musim dingin Southern Hemisphere (bulan Juni- September) 2014. wlaupun saat ini nilai SOI masih pada posisi normal, tetapi prediksi dari model-model menunjukan bahwa SOI akan mencapai batas El Nino pada musim dingin Australia mendatang.

El Niño likely to develop in winter

Issued on Tuesday 8 April 2014 |

It is now likely (estimated at a greater than 70% chance) that an El Niño will develop during the southern hemisphere winter. Although the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently neutral, surface and sub-surface ocean temperatures have warmed considerably in recent weeks, consistent with a state of rapid transition. International climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate continued warming of the central Pacific Ocean in coming months. Most models predict sea surface temperatures will reach El Niño thresholds during the coming winter season.

El Niño is often, but not always, associated with below normal rainfall across large parts of southern and inland eastern Australia during the second half of the year. The strength of an El Niño does not always indicate how much it will influence Australian rainfall. Historically there are examples where weak events have resulted in widespread drought across large parts of Australia, while at other times strong events have resulted in relatively modest impacts. It is too early to determine the strength of this potential El Niño. Daytime temperatures tend to be above normal over southern Australia during El Niño.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently in a neutral state. Model outlooks indicate the IOD will remain neutral through late autumn and early winter. The chance of a positive IOD event occurring will increase if an El Niño develops.

Next update expected on 22 April 2014


Mari kita sambut !


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